South Korea Is Preparing A “Surgical Strike” Against The North: Report

According to a report in South Korea’s Munhwa Ilbo newspaper, which cites an unidentified government official, South Korea’s military is preparing a “surgical strike” scenario that could wipe out North Korean command and missile and nuclear facilities …The post South Korea Is Preparing A “Surgical Strike” Against The North: Report appeared first on post South Korea Is Preparing A “Surgical Strike” Against The North: Report appeared first on

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Понедельник: итоги дня на основных фондовых площадках США

Основные фондовые индексы США завершили торги смешано, поскольку падение акций технологического сектора компенсировалось ростом сектора конгломератов.

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Запись Понедельник: итоги дня на основных фондовых площадках США впервые появилась Прогноз курса валют. Форекс новости.

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Нефть WTI приближается к $50, прибавила 8% за июль

Фьючерсы на западно-техасскую нефть (WTI) восстановились от недавних потерь в понедельник, приближаясь к отметке $50 за баррель впервые за это лето.

Нефть продолжает восходящий тренд в июле, на фоне новостей о том, что ОПЕК делает все возможное для того, чтобы сбалансировать нефтяные рынки.

На прошлой неделе Организация стран-экспортеров нефти и ее партнеры, в том числе Россия, согласились сократить добычу примерно на 1,8 миллиона баррелей в сутки до марта 2018 года.

Большая часть сокращения производства приходится на долю Саудовской Аравии. Нигерия, которая была освобождена от плана сокращения поставок, теперь будет выполнять его в определенном объеме.

На фоне слабого доллара, фьючерсы на нефть WTI выросли на 7 центов и закрылись по $49,78 за баррель. Цена выросла более чем на 8% за июль.

Запись Нефть WTI приближается к $50, прибавила 8% за июль впервые появилась Прогноз курса валют. Форекс новости.

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July Jolts: Tech Tops, Trannies Trounced, Dollar Demolished, & VIX Vaporized

Just seemed appropriate…


July was a month of extremes across asset classes…

  • Nasdaq Composite surged over 3.5% – best month since Feb 2017 (up 11 of last 13 months)
  • FANG Stocks spiked 10% – best month since Oct 2015 (up 11 of last 13 months)
  • Dow Transports tumbled over 3.5% – worst month since Brexit (June 2016)
  • VIX hit a record intraday low of 8.84
  • 30Y Treasury Yields rose 6bps – the biggest monthly rise since Nov 2016
  • WTI Crude spiked 9%, back above $50 – best month since April 2016
  • FX ‘VIX’ surged – biggest spike since Nov 2016
  • Dollar Index weakest since Dec 2014 –  worst month since Jan 2017 – longest losing streak since 2011

And finally

  • US Economic ‘Hard’ Data slumped for the 4th month in a row – longest losing streak since Sept 2010, lowest monthly close since Feb 2009

*  *  *

Quite a divergence between Tech and Trannies this month… (record highs former and two-month lows latter) – Trannies are down 9 of the last 11 days for the biggest drop since Brexit (June 2016)


Ugly close though…


5th record close in a row for The Dow… Thanks to Boeing!! (on the month Boeing accounted for 310 of The Dow’s 570 point gain)


VIX crashed to an all-time record intraday low during the month after The Fed statement…but after last week’s modest turmoil in tech, VIX has remained elevated…


However, as Nasdaq has soared  – SOMEONE has been buying downside protection…

To its most extreme level since November


The Tech sector outperformed on the month with retailers bouncing back from an early month bloodbath to end green…


FANG Stocks exploded higher by over 10% in July – the best month since Oct 2015 thanks to a yuge 22% gain in NFLX (and AMZN briefly helped). However, the last three days have started to show some strains (worst since the last week of June)


And this happened…From $29.44 to $13.10 in 5 months


The dollar index suffered its fifth monthly loss in a row (worst since Jan)

This is its longest losing streak since 2011… (lowest monthly close since Dec 2014 for Bloomberg Dollar Index)…

The Dollar Index broke below 93 for the first time since May 2016

  • EURUSD  (up 5mo in a row) – best month since Mar 2016
  • GBPUSD (up 4 of last 5 mo) – highest monthly close since July 2016 (right after Brexit plunge)
  • USDJPY biggest monthly drop since Jan 2017
  • USDCAD (down 3 mo in a row) – lowest monthly close since May 2015

As BofA notes, the DXY is now off more than 9% from the highs of December and is not that far from the lows of May last year. Meanwhile positioning has completely flipped around with investors having gone from long to short the USD and EUR positioning having gone the other way.

The main reason for the USD weakness, in our view, is the downgrading of US growth expectations both care of a sluggish Q1 (a mixed Q2), a reduced probability of big tax cuts, soft inflation prints and more robust growth elsewhere.

The risk reward on the USD therefore seems to be shifting. Expectations on US in terms of growth, inflation and fiscal policy are now pretty low, while positioning is clearly the other way around. For the catalyst, we probably need to see stronger US growth and/or some better inflation prints to bring a December Fed tightening back on the cards. Interestingly the US economic surprise index has started to turn. Bond yields also seem to have found a floor too suggesting that it requires more negative surprises to drive them lower. Catching turning points in currencies is always tricky as they tend to trend but we are inclined to think we are not that far away for the USD.

Furthermore, Dollar ‘VIX’ soared in July…decoupling from the rest of the world’s assets…


And as the dollar tumbled so the long-end of the yield curve was dumped with 30Y yields up 6bps – the biggest monthly rise in yield since Nov 2016…but notice that the short-end rallied…


July saw the biggest steepening in 2s30s since Nov 2016…


WTI Crude briefly tagged $50 handle in overnight trading but ended lower on the day, fell during the day, then ripped back above $50 as NYMEX closed.

After 4 straight down months, this was Crude’s best month since December – up over 7%…

As the dollar free-falled (free-fell?) in July, so Gold gained – having its best month since February with its highest monthly close since Oct 2016

*  *  *

So what happens in August?


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Corporate America Is Suddenly Freaking Out About Amazon

Last night we showed the dramatic impact Amazon has had on the retail sector, where over $6 billion in retail debt has filed for Chapter 11 protection YTD…… a 110% surge compared to the first half of 2016, and pointed out that there was one recurring name mentioned among 2017’s bankrupt retailers listed in the chart below: brands such as Gymboree, Payless, rue 21 and the Limited all cited Amazon affect as a contributor to their downfall.It’s not just the direct casualties of Amazon’s encroachment on the retail sector that are having nightmares about Jeff Bezos’ $500 billion juggernaut, however. As Bloomberg, which picked up on the topic of Amazon references this morning points out, “it’s It isn’t the chaos in Washington or rising worker pay” that is keeping corporate America up at night: “It’s what Inc. is, or could be, doing to their business models.”With the expanding online behemoth morphing from a retail category killer to a much broader enterprise that now competes with everything from high-end grocers to technology developers, “America has taken notice – and is increasingly concerned about the competition. So much so that Amazon’s overshadowed the Trump administration’s inability to claim a signature legislative achievement after more than six months in office.”Bloomberg has quantified this by looking at the last 90 days of earnings calls and other corporate events such as investor days, which reveals a trend: “Amazon comes up a lot. It was mentioned a staggering 635 times over that time frame, while President Trump came up just 162 times and wages were discussed 111… It’s become even more pronounced over the past 30 days, with Amazon garnering 165 mentions compared with 32 for Trump and 22 for wages.”As Bloomberg adds, the trend holds over the past 12 months, which encompasses the period when Trump pulled off his surprise election victory. Yet, Amazon was mentioned 1,800 times on earnings calls over that span, compared with 1,000 for Trump and 406 for wages. On the surface this would suggest that while Trump may be taking credit for the market’s upside, corporate America is terrified by Amazon (and not Washington politics, and certainly not Trump) as catalyzing the next move lower, if not for the market, then certainly for thousands of mostly-public US corporations.Some more from Bloomberg:  Amazon typically comes up in discussions about efforts to expand into new business lines in a shifting retail landscape. For instance, on the McDonald’s Corp. second-quarter earnings call this month, Chief Executive Officer Steve Easterbrook pointed to Amazon’s purchase of the upscale grocery chain Whole Foods Market Inc. as an example of how rapidly the food industry is being transformed. “It just demonstrates how disruptive the business world is and how quickly it moves,” he said.So quickly, in fact, the the Washington Post itself – a newspaper owned by Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos – issued a front page article asking “Is Amazon Getting Too Big”, i.e. a monopoly. The answer, remarkable, is as close to yes as a WaPo editorial would be allowed to go:If Amazon is so small and its growth so benign, she asks, then why does the prospect of Amazon’s entry into a market dramatically drive up its own stock price while driving down those of its rivals? Why, she asks, have so many large and successful bricks-and-mortar retailers been unable to make significant inroads into online retailing while so many small retailers feel they have no choice but to use Amazon’s platform to reach their customers?  Antitrust analysis generally assumes dominant firms often exercise their market power by raising prices, but what if Amazon exercises its market power, Khan asks, by squeezing the profit margins of its suppliers? What if its strategy is to keep prices low in markets it dominates to gain entry into new markets that will generate still more sales and profits?  How, she asks, can antitrust regulators analyze the structure of a market, and Amazon’s bargaining power in it, when so many of Amazon’s competitors are also its customers or suppliers? Why did Sears stock rise 19 percent on the day that it announced its Kenmore line of appliances would be sold through Amazon? Why do Walmart, Google, Oracle and UPS all consider Amazon their biggest threat? And if Amazon is not a monopolist, Khan asks, why are financial markets pricing its stock as if it is going to be?  “Antitrust enforcers should be . . . concerned about the fact that Amazon increasingly controls the infrastructure of online commerce and the ways it is harnessing this dominance to expand and advantage its new business ventures,” Khan wrote in her law review article.All good questions, and ones which we are confident, will be asked by Congress, the FTC and the administration in the not too distant future. The post Corporate America Is Suddenly Freaking Out About Amazon appeared first on post Corporate America Is Suddenly Freaking Out About Amazon appeared first on

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